Relationship of cardiac disease to stroke occurrence, recurrence, and mortality.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE This is a study of cardiac diseases associated with the 1,382 cases of first cerebral infarction in residents of Rochester, Minn., during 1960-1984. METHODS This is a population-based study in Rochester, Minn., for which the medical record-linkage system was used to identify cardiac disease among patients with first cerebral infarction. RESULTS There were 318 patients (23%) who had at least one major potential cardiac source of emboli. The proportion of patients with a cardiac source of emboli was significantly higher among patients older than age 75 years (29%) than among younger patients (17%). The 30-day stroke recurrence rate among patients with a cardiac source of emboli (2%) was not significantly different than that among those without a cardiac source of emboli (2%). Among patients with a cardiac source of emboli, there was no difference in the probability of stroke at 30 days and at 90 days for those treated or not treated with anticoagulants. During the first 30 days after cerebral infarction, the risk of death in patients with a cardiac source of emboli (23%) was 14 times that of recurrent stroke. The risk of death at 30 days in patients without a cardiac source of emboli was 8%. CONCLUSIONS Significant independent predictors of death (Cox proportional-hazards analysis) were age, prior myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation present at onset of stroke, congestive heart failure before the stroke, and an age x congestive heart failure interaction. The only significant independent predictors of recurrent stroke were cardiac valve disease and congestive heart failure.